Cyclone expected to hit Odisha as most models indicate movement of system towards Odisha coast, says IMD.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially forecasted that a low pressure area is likely to form over the Central Bay of Bengal (BoB) around October 22 with chances of northwestwards movement and further intensification. Most weather models are indicating movement of the system towards the Odisha coast.

According to the weather models, a cyclonic circulation is expected to emerge into the North Andaman Sea around October 20, with the possibility of intensifying into a low pressure area over the central BoB around October 22 and potentially developing into a depression by October 24. However, there is variation among models regarding the peak intensification, with some indicating depression intensity and others indicating intensification up to a severe cyclonic storm. These models also forecast movement of the system towards the Odisha coast.

Additionally, the IMD CFS V2 850 hPa anomaly field indicates a cyclonic anomaly over the central BoB during the first week of October (October 18 to October 24) and another anomaly over Odisha during the beginning of the second week of October (October 25 to October 31). The NCMRWF ERF model has a similar forecast in the mean wind field for the first week.

The IMD ERF model indicates a low to moderate probability (30-40%) of cyclogenesis over the central and adjoining south BoB with an extension towards northwest BoB during the first week. The ECMWF ensemble forecast model also indicates a moderate probability (40-50%) of cyclogenesis over the westcentral and adjoining northwest BoB during the first week.

Meteorologist Jason Nicholls has also noted that a low pressure area may form over the Bay of Bengal during the early part of the next week and could intensify into a cyclonic storm, potentially threatening North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha during the late next week.

Expected Impact:
Rough to very rough sea conditions are expected over the Andaman Sea during October 21 to 23, the Central Bay of Bengal during October 22 to 24, and the North Bay of Bengal during October 24 to 26, as well as along and off the coastal areas of Odisha, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Bangladesh, and Myanmar during October 24 to 26.

Advisory:
1. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the central Bay of Bengal and North Andaman Sea from October 22 to 24, and the North Bay of Bengal during October 24 to 26.
2. Judicious regulation of shipping, port, and naval base activities is recommended during the above period.
3. Tourism activities may be impacted in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during October 21 to 23.